The college basketball season is picking up steam as we near February and conference play is beginning to reveal who the real contenders are in the Mid-American Conference.
Of course, it will come down to who is playing well entering March and can put together three or four straight wins in the MAC tournament in Cleveland.
This Toledo team has shown it can play with the likes of Notre Dame and beat Akron on the road but also lose to the likes of Kansas City. Like is the case with college basketball on the national level, pretty much anything could happen rest of season and it wouldn't be too surprising. That being said, here are some predictions for the rest of the Toledo season:
Final record: 18-13, 10-8 MAC
As it stands, Toledo is 10-8 and 2-3 in the MAC. The Rockets have already played a tough portion of their schedule with road games at Ball State, Kent State, and Akron. They have two games left against a good Bowling Green team and have road contests with the rest of the MAC West other than Ball State. They get MAC East foes Miami and Buffalo at home. KenPom.com has projected Toledo to finish 19-12 and 11-7 in the MAC. They actually predict each game left on the schedule individually and the metrics have Toledo favored to win every game except the one at Bowling Green. The MAC is so unpredictable that I think Toledo can win eight of its last 13, but a few breaks the wrong way and that record could be reversed to 5-8.
Postseason fate: MAC tournament semifinals
Toledo's starting five is as good as any in the MAC. The problem is that the Rockets rely heavily on those five players on a team that goes just eight deep. With experienced players like Marreon Jackson, Willie Jackson, and Luke Knapke, Toledo could absolutely get hot and win the MAC tournament. There are worries, however, that the heavy minutes will wear down the Rockets starters by season's end and the team has been turnover prone and undergone prolonged scoring droughts at inopportune times this season. Ultimately the prediction here is that Toledo will bow out in the semifinals of the MAC tournament in Cleveland. I don't think a postseason NIT berth is in the cards like last year, but maybe the CBI if they choose to play in it.
Bold prediction: Marreon Jackson wins MAC player of the year
Marreon Jackson, the junior point guard from Cleveland, is red hot right now. Coming off a 36-point game at Akron, Jackson is second in the conference in scoring at 18.2 points per game and second in assists at 6.1 per game. Jackson is setting up his teammates in good spots and running the offense efficiently. But where he has really stood out is his scoring ability. He has shown the ability to carry the Toledo offense at times. He has been more aggressive driving to the basket lately and, as he showed with seven 3's at Akron, he is capable of catching fire from beyond the arc. Yes, he can be streaky, but when he is on, he can really get rolling. The Rockets will need a heroic rest of season from Jackson and I think he can provide that on the way to postseason honors.
First Published January 20, 2020, 10:51 p.m.
